By Joseph Ojian Amara
While Asia braces for conflict, the one in Europe has clocked a new milestone, 110 days. Russia invaded Ukraine on the 24th of February, 2022. June 13, 2022 marks 110 days of relentless fighting and today everyone has just one question: who is winning this war? I wish I could give you a clear answer but this war is too hard to predict. It was supposed to be a cake walk for Vladimir Putin. 110 days on, that’s clearly not the case. Having said that, there is slow but gradual progress on the ground. Today Russia controls 20% of Ukraine’s territory. That’s around 58,000 square kilometres, which depends on how you look at it. The United States spent 20 years in Afghanistan but they never beat the Taliban. Most of the Afghan countryside was outside American control. Same in Iraq, U.S. forces camped there for more than a decade but the insurgency never stopped. So, 20% in 110 days is not a bad result really. Then why does it seem like Russia is stuck? Because the expectations were huge. The Russian Blitzkrieg was supposed to take care in days, instead Moscow changed strategy. They’re not focusing on the capital anymore. They’re focusing on the Donbas. And I’ll come to that in a bit. But before that, let’s look at the cost of these 110 days. First, the human toll. Marioupol alone has reported 21,000 deaths. And those are just civilians. According to President Zelenskyy, Ukraine is losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day. So, that’s more than 6,000 Soldiers in 100 days. What about Russian losses? The official figure is 1,300 but Ukraine claims 30,000 Russian Soldiers have died in combat. And if true, that’s more than the Soviet toll in Afghanistan. Next, Infrastructure: 38,000 residential buildings damaged, 1,900 schools, 500 factories and 500 hospitals. These are figures published by Ukraine. All this carnage has forced people to flee their homes. Around 6.8million people driven out of Ukraine and 7.1million internally displaced. This is the cost of 110 days of fighting but Ukraine is not backing down. Earlier, on 3rd June 2022, President Zelenskyy released a message on social media. He was on the street again with his cabinet. His message was defined. “Victory will be ours”, he says. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine are here and most importantly the people. The People of our state are here defending Ukraine for 100 days already. Victory will be ours. Glory to Ukraine”. Which brings us back to the first question: what does the victory look like? Every war is fought for political reason. He wanted to stop Ukraine from joining NATO. Has that goal been achieved? Well, yes and no. Zelenskyy did talk about agreeing to neutrality. He was also open to discussing the future of Donbas and Crimea. So that’s two wins for Russia: neutrality and land. He could get them both. At the same time, there is one major loss. Putin wanted less NATO on his borders. But now Finland and Sweden have applied for membership which means there will be more NATO on Russia’s borders. So, right now, it’s all about cost and benefit. Yes, Ukraine could declare neutrality but at what cost? What will be the cost to Russia? Sanctions, Military Setbacks and perhaps even domestic discontent. So, Putin has two options now:(1) he can escalate the conflict, declare a full war and throw the kitchen sink at Ukraine or (2) he can use his position to strike a favourable deal. He could get neutrality and land. The first option seems highly unlikely and I’ll give you two reasons why. One, the Russian public are already under immense financial strain. A full war could trigger widespread backlash against Putin and (2) taking Kyiv has no strategic value. Putin will have to install a puppet regime and he’ll have to fight insurgency. Why bother with all that when Zelenskyy will agree to the same terms. What happens next in this war will depend on one thing and that is time. Russia says they’re not chasing deadlines in Ukraine but the fact is that they’re. And those deadlines will depend on western unity. If more sanctions are announced, Russia will face deadlines. They will have to wind up the war quickly, if not Russia can afford to extend their “Special Military Operation”, as they call it. And that’s what Putin is counting on. Because 110 days in, fatigue is already creeping in. By November, the U.S. will be heading to Midterm Elections and President Joe Biden will have to make a choice: tackle inflation or help Ukraine. Plus Vladimir Putin is an expert in waging such forgotten wars. Think back to the Chechen War from 1999, The Donbas war from 2014 or the Syrian war after 2015, all forgotten and buried by the West. Will this one go the same way? It depends on how distracted the West is. In addition, Japan sanctions are part of a western strategy. They cannot fight militarily, so they’re fighting financially through sanctions, boycotts, embargoes and trade wars. Sort of like economic warfare. That’s very much on. These tactics may be different but the end goal is the same: to make Russia pay or to squeeze the Russian economy. And how’s that going? The sanctions are definitely biting. According to one estimate, the Russian economy will shrink by 15% this year and by 3% in 2023. Put together,15 years of economic gains could be wiped out in Russia. And the numbers do support this. Russia’s inflation is at 17%. Unemployment is projected to hit 9% and more than one thousand companies have ended their operations in Russia. So, what do people do? Many Russians are packing their bags and leaving. Sort of like a brain drain. Three hundred thousand Russians have left their country by Mid-March. At this rate 10% of Russia’s I.T. Workforce could leave, but the biggest hit is energy. Russia was once called a Gas Station pretending to be a country. That’s how much energy they sold. In 2021, their total revenue was $235billion and around half of this came from Europe. Europe is planning to end Russian energy dependence by the end of this year. And if that happens, Russia will have to find new buyers which means new pipelines, new payment systems and new contracts. And none of this will happen overnight. So, Vladimir Putin may or may not accept it, but his economy is certainly hurting. Does that mean the sanctions are a complete success? The answer is “no”. Like I’ve said before, war is not about military victories. War is also about achieving political goals. The same logic applies to sanctions. Sanctions are not about crippling a country. They’re also about achieving the overall political goal. What was the goal in this case? To stop the war. Has the west achieved that? Well, not yet. They have stopped Russia’s economic growth but not the war in Ukraine. In fact, Russia is intensifying their strikes: taking more cities and issuing more threats. So, who exactly are the sanctions hurting? The rest of the world. Let’s focus on two important commodities: oil and food. Both commodities are becoming more expensive every day. Western sanctions are making oil expensive. Russia’s Black Sea blockade is making food expensive. And the result is this: everybody is suffering. In Europe, gas prices are up 40%. In Africa, Wheat prices are up 60%. In South Asia, countries are running out of foreign exchange and in the U.S., gasoline has topped $5 per gallon. In other words, the sanctions have globalized economic pain. If Russia goes down, it won’t go alone. The ripples will be felt across the world. And this raises two questions. Number one, why must Nepal, Ghana or Egypt pay the price for Russia’s war? And number two, is it time to rethink economic sanctions? For the first question, you can’t rather blame globalization. Think back to the 2008 Recession. The housing bubble burst in the U.S., American Banks messed up their policy, yet the entire world suffered. That is the downside of globalization. The good times are globalized but so are the bad times which brings us to the second question. Should we rethink sanctions? After all, when have sanctions worked? Not against North Korea, Iran, Venezuela and now not against Russia. In fact, sanctions can be counterproductive. They can galvanize the public. Take Iran or North Korea for instance, western sanctions are a unifying force for these countries. Leaders use sanctions to rally their public. That’s one reason why sanctions fail. The other reason is exemptions. Most sanctions leave out certain commodities. In Russia’s case they’ve left out energy because it does not suit the west. The west may have agreed to phase out Russian energy but other countries can still buy it. For example, India and China have increased Russian energy purchases. It may take time but gradually the oil money is going to return to Russia. And that is why sanctions fail because they’re always half-hearted, sort of like the middle part: a little less than military intervention but more than condemnation.