It is feared that Somalia will be stuck in the slow lane after Uganda announced it will withdraw its support troops in the African Union mission (Amisom) in Somalia next year.
The decision is directly linked to the combat against the al-Shabaab insurgency as it mirrors the frustration by some African governments that it does not appear that the war is being won nor the shadows of it.
Al-Shabaab continue to use successful dodgy tactics to outwit the government forces, narrowing it down to deadly suicide attacks on government facilities resulting in deaths.
It is fair to say it is difficult to tell with accuracy which side is having the upper hand and pushing peace and security to a shaky start. Uganda’s decision will leave a gaping hole in Somalia’s defence strategy making it look like a ripe plum to be picked.
It is doubtful whether any African country would immediately fill the gap given the volatile situation or display the strong commitment, which President Yoweri Museveni had displayed towards Somalia.
The announcement has undoubtedly come at a time when elections are due by August so it is obvious that it will become a campaign issue by the opposition which has constantly accused the government of fighting the war with its hands folded while the alQaeda affiliate al-Shabaab is having a field day.
Uganda’s decision will also have a telling effect on foreign assistance being given to end the war. Analysts said it comes at a time when a political earthquake has occurred in Western Europe resulting in Britain leaving the European Union, a move which British Prime Minister David Cameron personally campaigned against and has signaled his intention to resign.
It is too early to tell whether in-coming presumed Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was a leading figure to quit the EU would see Somalia as a worthwhile extra baggage to take along.
In the meantime, Britain would have to work out a strategy as to how to provide jobs for the thousands of Britons made idle by the result of the referendum.
It was the second largest market in the EU outfit and a powerful economic force. All these have been lost and the search for alternatives will begin and not to think of the large number of Britons that were working in the EU secretariat in Brussels travelling by air each morning to Brussels from Heathrow and Stanstead airports and coming back in the evening.
“Its like taking the bus to a down town mall each day,” one British worker told me when we travelled on an evening flight from Brussels some time back.
Also not forgetting the dozens of British parliamentarians who are members of the European legislature who would now have to look beyond the stars for job prospects elsewhere.
With this background, whatever assistance likely to come from Britain to Somalia would have to take time.
Ugandan troops have been in Somalia since 2007 and its withdrawal notice to Amisom would no doubt set the minds of other troops contributing countries thinking.
Uganda’s decision has not come as a surprise to keen watchers of the East African country. It is going through a rough economic ride mainly attributed to uncontrolled spending on troop expeditions beyond its borders.
The country maintains a sizeable but expensive force in South Sudan fighting along the government of President Salva Kiir.
The recent presidential election which Museveni won under frosty circumstances to continue his 30 year rule has also helped to top the icing on the cake apart from Uganda losing many soldiers in both wars.
Ugandans jokingly say that every time Museveni leaves Kampala on oversea trips, he moves along with the Central Bank currencies stuffed in his two pockets.
The international community is slowly assessing Somalia as having a bottomless pit which apart from the war has led to corruption and tainted elections as recent as 2012.
Nearly 500 million dollars in donor funding have been earmarked for the up coming election in August although it is unclear whether it will take place.
The 2012 election was twisted by regional Somali elders but the international community is in no mood this time to let things ride without asking what’s going on?
On the top of it all, security ranks high. The government claims that it has liberated 65 percent of the country, an assertion to most observers which is laughable.
The most tormenting feeling with the Ugandan decision is whether Kenya is not likely to follow the trend. It could even lead to Ethiopia doing likewise.
Added to the bleak forecast, Somalia is faced with dire social indicators and wrangled by food shortages as well as a huge displaced population and major unemployment among its estimated 67 percent population.
The country’s main export is sheep but because of the war, importing countries are demanding a clean bill of health for all products from Somalia shipped to their territories.
Taken in a package, it predicts stormy times ahead.
By Rod Mac-Johnson
Tuesday June 28, 2016
ADVERTISEMENT