In about seven month’s time, Somalia’s President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed will end his term of no return to State.
Going is not the issue but what legacy he will leave behind that would be value-added to possible settling down of Somalia from the rot of several years.
About that time too, the country’s parliament will end its mandate and new crops of legislators are expected to hotly contest the election whenever and if ever they are held.
In Somalia, everything, even eating times are sometimes on hold with many folks jokingly saying it all begins and ends in ”inshala.” (God willing).
But if current development is of any guide, President Ahmed is being seen partly as a man who tried unsuccessfully to keep the country on the move against all ends but was defeated by the odds.
He would be credited for keeping a firm stance against the dreaded Islamist Al-shabaab organization gaining a toe hold on Mogadishu, the capital, after dozens of tries-thanks to his cooperation with AMISOM, the African Union Peacekeeping Mission in Somalia.
But whether sides will be shifted was a guessing game and it was such imbalance that threw backers of Somalia into frenzy as to what would come up next.
Though President Ahmed’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) on many occasions had to sing for its supper, it was able to map out a solidarity leaning with AMISOM which stood by it to breast feed it.
But the Mission has had and keeps having its own shortfalls. There is the need for additional funding to keep it from tottering.
“It is to ensure that the force doesn’t run out of bullets,” explained one of its fighting members.
AMISOM is being bailed out by the UN but moves for it to be put under the UN umbrella remain a slow tortoise-like pace.
In a fit of laughter, a Somalian joker countered, “it is slowly turning out to be like inviting a centipede to dinner and after waiting several hours to check why the delay, you are told by the centipede, ‘I am putting on my shoes’.”
In New York’s diplomatic language, UN bureaucrats say privately, “it’s a damn hard to sell commodity.”
So while the train is on slow coach, the glance is cast on African states, some of which are on the economic limp, keeping their heads barely above the water line.
Never give up, seemed to be the AU’s hopes. Still undersized, the force is kicking hard to move to battle strength of 12,000 and some say to 17,000.
Perhaps, it can reach the figure in the long run but it will be the issue of constant supply of logistics and regular monthly salaries for the hard-pressed men and women that will bring the Somali problem to a quick end.
Looking at the present legislative structure, the often disputed office of Prime Minister is often touted as nuisance-value.
“Not so”, say self-confessed democrats in the parliamentary structure who do more talking than listening-“So much wrangling has gone on over the post that various holders have had nightmares.”
Current holder, Abdeweli Mohamed Ali was no sworn in despite initial boycott by dozens of Members of Parliament who opposed his nomination.
Considered by many as a new kid on the block, some jeered at him as “Johnny come lately” he has been able to hold the ground so far despite being occasionally overshadowed; others say, bullied by veteran politicians who claimed to have the blueprint for a better country.
But perhaps the greatest worrying factor remains Kenya’s military excursion into Somalia to tame the beyond the border excesses of the dreaded Al-shabaab.
You can say Al-shabaab fighters brought it on themselves but how long will the Kenyan military stay put.
Expected backing from nearby states has been slow in coming and support is mainly being said behind closed doors than in public. What was touted as a quick fix is slowly turning out to be a long haul.
Militarists will tell you, the longer the mission, the chances of it becoming a turn-off to even those who supported it in the beginning.
“Its got to be a surgical operation, swift and nose-bleeding,” growled a local warfare expert.
Would Kenyan soldiers stay put longer to drive home the message that the incursion is winnable? That’s a question the government of Mwai Kibaki needs to answer without delay. Would a solution be proffered in the midst of mind bugging activities as general elections in December and the recent International Criminal Court (ICC) indictment of four top Kenyan officials?
Would there be space for them to be fitted as “matters pending?”
If what is seeping out is true, some insiders say, Al-shabaab is riddled by internal wrangling and leadership rivalry.
Its current unpopularity no doubt is linked to the group’s amateur handling of the famine episode which gripped the desert-stricken country late last year.
The fall outs are still there, people going to bed hungry, suckling mothers burying their fingers like rabbits do, to see what feeble crops are beneath the soil.
Al-shabaab’s undoing was to block food distribution from international humanitarian organizations to the million hungry.
The group is also suffering from recruitment crunch. One of its fighters complained, “Years back we were turning away several Somalis who were eager to join the movement. We had money coming in like rain. Now the tide has turned. We are lucky to get one email in weeks. Now we are slowly becoming yesterday’s people.
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